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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Robert Morris

Conference:NEC
Expected RPI:196.0
Current RPI:196
Expected SOS:242
Current SOS:242
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-6
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:134
Expected OOC SOS:144



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17196.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Robert Morris.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Ohio St. (20.0)B10A95-64L0%0.0
11-13Grand Canyon (156.0)WACA75-61L0%0.0
11-15San Diego (143.0)WCCA65-53L0%0.0
11-19Duquesne (259.0)A10A59-66W100%0.0
11-24Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACN75-53W100%0.0
11-25Little Rock (308.0)SBA64-78W100%0.0
11-29Youngstown St. (329.0)HorzA74-81W100%0.0
12-2Siena (299.0)MAACA76-74L0%0.0
12-6Rider (69.0)MAACH78-75W100%0.0
12-10Drexel (242.0)CAAH74-60W100%0.0
12-16Buffalo (25.0)MACA86-70L0%0.0
12-19North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA81-69L0%0.0
12-22Canisius (124.0)MAACH62-76L0%0.0
12-29Bryant (341.0)NECA54-68W100%0.0
12-31Central Connecticut (263.0)NECA57-71W100%0.0
1-4St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH80-79W100%0.0
1-6LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECH88-79W100%0.0
1-11St. Francis PA (178.0)NECH80-89L0%0.0
1-13Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECA75-81W100%0.0
1-18Sacred Heart (321.0)NECA60-74W100%0.0
1-20Wagner (109.0)NECA62-49L0%0.0
1-26Sacred Heart (321.0)NECH64-56W100%0.0
1-28Wagner (109.0)NECH64-77L0%0.0
2-1Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH42-67L0%0.0
2-3Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)NECH67-73L0%0.0
2-8St. Francis NY (276.0)NECA77-65L0%0.0
2-10LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECA82-96W100%0.0
2-15Bryant (341.0)NECH83-60W100%0.0
2-17Central Connecticut (263.0)NECH58-65L0%0.0
2-22Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECA72-53L0%0.0
2-24St. Francis PA (178.0)NECA80-60L0%0.0
2-28Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECA56-60W100%0.0
3-3Wagner (109.0)NECA75-64L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Robert Morris's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Robert Morris's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Robert Morris.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Robert MorrisNEC26.4726.4753.4253.421.811.81
WagnerNEC5.525.5266.6766.671.841.84
Mount St. Mary'sNEC5.405.4051.8551.850.200.20
LIU BrooklynNEC4.124.1254.8454.840.400.40
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC4.034.0337.0437.04-1.05-1.05
Central ConnecticutNEC4.024.0243.3343.33-0.54-0.54
St. Francis NYNEC4.004.0037.0437.04-1.04-1.04
BryantNEC3.993.9910.3410.34-3.16-3.16
St. Francis PANEC3.983.9853.8553.850.310.31
Sacred HeartNEC3.933.9332.1432.14-1.41-1.41
RiderMAAC1.691.6973.3373.330.790.79
CanisiusMAAC1.661.6664.5264.520.480.48
SienaMAAC1.641.6422.5822.58-0.90-0.90
Grand CanyonWAC1.591.5964.5264.520.460.46
Little RockSB1.591.5920.6920.69-0.93-0.93
Norfolk St.MEAC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
San DiegoWCC1.591.5955.1755.170.160.16
DuquesneA101.571.5751.6151.610.050.05
North Carolina St.ACC1.561.5664.5264.520.450.45
DrexelCAA1.541.5438.7138.71-0.35-0.35
BuffaloMAC1.541.5475.0075.000.770.77
Youngstown St.Horz1.541.5420.6920.69-0.90-0.90
Ohio St.B101.521.5274.1974.190.730.73
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.370.3743.7543.75-0.05-0.05
HartfordAE0.340.3458.0658.060.050.05
FairfieldMAAC0.240.2451.5251.520.010.01
NJITASun0.220.2242.8642.86-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.220.2237.9337.93-0.05-0.05
QuinnipiacMAAC0.210.2136.3636.36-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.210.2120.0020.00-0.12-0.12
NiagaraMAAC0.200.2059.3859.380.040.04
IonaMAAC0.200.2060.6160.610.040.04
RutgersB100.200.2042.4242.42-0.03-0.03
BrownIvy0.190.1938.4638.46-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.180.1857.5857.580.030.03
LouisvilleACC0.170.1760.6160.610.040.04
ManhattanMAAC0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
LehighPat0.150.1551.7251.720.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.150.1515.6215.62-0.10-0.10
FordhamA100.150.1529.0329.03-0.06-0.06
Boston CollegeACC0.150.1555.8855.880.020.02
MaristMAAC0.140.1419.3519.35-0.09-0.09
MonmouthMAAC0.140.1435.4835.48-0.04-0.04
San FranciscoWCC0.130.1353.1253.120.010.01
Seton HallBE0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
Holy CrossPat0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.130.1338.7138.71-0.03-0.03
Morgan St.MEAC0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1232.3532.35-0.04-0.04
DaytonA100.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.120.1225.0025.00-0.06-0.06
DartmouthIvy0.120.1223.0823.08-0.07-0.07
OhioMAC0.120.1243.3343.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.120.1256.2556.250.020.02
St. John'sBE0.120.1246.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.120.1278.1278.120.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
NavyPat0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Loyola MDPat0.100.1026.6726.67-0.05-0.05
HamptonMEAC0.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
MemphisAmer0.100.1061.7661.760.020.02
BinghamtonAE0.100.1031.0331.03-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.060.06
AlbanyAE0.100.1067.7467.740.030.03
HofstraCAA0.100.1060.0060.000.020.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.090.0946.6746.67-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.090.0977.4277.420.050.05
UMKCWAC0.090.0927.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.090.0936.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
LongwoodBSth0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
MarylandB100.080.0858.0658.060.010.01
BYUWCC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
GeorgetownBE0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
North FloridaASun0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
ProvidenceBE0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
LafayettePat0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.070.0716.6716.67-0.05-0.05
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PacificWCC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.070.0735.4835.48-0.02-0.02
IndianaB100.070.0751.6151.610.000.00
George WashingtonA100.070.0745.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.070.0771.8871.880.030.03
ElonCAA0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Utah ValleyWAC0.070.0765.5265.520.020.02
William & MaryCAA0.070.0758.6258.620.010.01
DelawareCAA0.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
DenverSum0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Georgia SouthernSB0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Green BayHorz0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
OaklandHorz0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.03-0.03
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Savannah St.MEAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
YaleIvy0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.04-0.04
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
TowsonCAA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
ToledoMAC0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Northern ArizonaBSky0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Old DominionCUSA0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.030.0370.0070.000.010.01
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC IrvineBW0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
Air ForceMWC0.020.0234.4834.48-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
BucknellPat0.020.0273.5373.530.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DavidsonA100.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
DrakeMVC0.020.0248.3948.39-0.00-0.00
EvansvilleMVC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
JacksonvilleASun0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
MassachusettsA100.020.0239.3939.39-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Miami FLACC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
MinnesotaB100.020.0246.8846.88-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.020.0268.7568.750.010.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.020.0282.3582.350.020.02
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TempleAmer0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
UNC GreensboroSC0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
VermontAE0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
VirginiaACC0.020.0293.9493.940.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
UABCUSA0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00